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E&S market outlook 2026: Growth, technology and partnership | The Insurer The Insurer from Reuters The Insurer The Insurer TV Cyber Risk Sustainable Program Manager E&S Parametric Data Hub Sign in Subscribe Articles Region London Market Europe US / Americas Bermuda Asia Pacific Topics Broking Casualty Cyber ILS InsurTech and innovation Legacy Legal/ Regulatory Lloyd’s Losses M&A Parametric People Moves Property catastrophe Results Specialty Events & Conferences Events Content Types News Analysis Viewpoint Commentary Interview News Analysis Commentary Viewpoint Interview Events Videos E&S market outlook 2026: Growth, technology and partnership By Mike McKenna Published: Thu 29 Jan 2026 The Insurer news staff had no role in the production of this content. This content is created by the brand marketing unit of The Insurer. Two forces, market growth and technology advancements, will define the E&S landscape in 2026 while creating opportunity and accelerating change across commercial insurance more broadly. Amid this evolution, core values in this market will hold strong, and the year ahead will reward teams that combine experienced judgment, focused execution and trusted partnerships. Demand continues to flow into the non‑admitted market, propelled by its ability to address emerging exposures and complex risks, as well as capacity constraints in standard lines. That momentum is showing up in our pipeline and in those of our broker partners. Growth figures from the Wholesale & Specialty Insurance Association show the surplus lines segment remains robust and durable, with the first half of 2025 reaching $46 billion, up 13% year over year. Specialty carriers like Axis are positioned to act quickly while configuring complex risk transfer solutions for our distribution partners. As capacity tightens in certain segments of the retail market, E&S will continue to fill the void. In response to the current market dynamics, we see profitable growth opportunities in key areas of our portfolio, including casualty, property, allied health, construction, environmental and inland marine. Speed, clarity and coverage precision are essential – and our competitive advantage continues to be rooted in providing unparalleled underwriting expertise while being responsive to customer and broker needs. CLAIMS TRENDS: DISCIPLINE IN A TOUGHER LIABILITY ENVIRONMENT Growth opportunities are real, and so are the headwinds. Nuclear verdicts have increased in frequency, as well as so-called thermonuclear verdicts above $100 million, according to a report from Marathon Strategies. These outcomes, while outliers, reverberate across the market by influencing negotiation dynamics and expected settlement ranges. Combined with social inflation, which continues to pressure casualty and other longer tail lines, the liability environment demands rigour in pricing and reserving. Our stance is straightforward: keep coverage and price viable for customers while maintaining the financial strength to honour commitments when losses materialise. That balance depends on methodical underwriting, thoughtful limits management and a clear view of venue, exposure and trend. Catastrophe‑exposed property also requires careful attention as input costs and rebuilding expenses move with economic conditions. In this environment, consistency and clarity are differentiators. AI GUARDRAILS TO ENSURE INNOVATION Artificial intelligence is changing how we work, practically and profoundly. For specialty insurers, the first wave of value is operational: automating routine tasks, elevating submission triage and surfacing insights from unstructured data at speed. Recently, we have been exploring AI to help analyse and prioritise submissions, enabling faster responses to brokers and clearer decisions on appetite. The result: more focus where we choose to add value and quicker declinations when the risk doesn’t meet our portfolio composition standards. The second wave is analytical. As research from McKinsey notes, generative AI extends traditional analytics by unlocking patterns in unstructured information, from broker notes to loss runs, improving how underwriters form a view of risk. For Axis, the goal isn’t automation for its own sake: it’s better decisions, sharper risk selection and higher transactional efficiency. AI will streamline routine activity and elevate the premium on human judgment, relationship capital and creative structuring, especially for complex risks. We’re clear‑eyed about risk. AI introduces challenges – bias, privacy and security among them. Robust governance, model oversight and regulatory compliance are non‑negotiable. Customer outcomes guide deployment decisions. That guardrail ensures innovation serves brokers and insureds, not the other way around. CLAIMS: SPEED PLUS EXPERTISE AI’s role in claims will differ by claim type and complexity. The priority is using technology where it lifts service without compromising security, confidentiality, fairness or accuracy. Practical use cases include summarising documents, spotting anomalies and drafting routine correspondence, freeing claims professionals to concentrate on complex evaluations and strategy. As agentic capabilities mature, task orchestration may help streamline workflows, but complex decisions will remain anchored in human expertise. The principle holds: use technology to enhance judgment, not replace it. BROKER PARTNERSHIPS: THE MULTIPLIER Partnership is what makes a real difference in the E&S market. Brokers are closest to customer needs and central to how solutions come together, while our job requires responsiveness, transparency on appetite and decisiveness on structure. In 2026, we will deepen collaboration in areas where market dislocation creates opportunity and where specialty knowledge is essential. Across these segments, speed matters, but not at the expense of discipline. We’ll continue to simplify submission requirements, provide clear decisioning and invest in data and tooling that give brokers faster, more predictable outcomes. WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2026 The E&S market enters 2026 with growth momentum and a more complex risk backdrop. Capital will continue to enter this market to consider opportunities where risk can be well evaluated and returns are expected for this risk transfer. Customers will continue to look for specialty solutions that combine coverage clarity and dependable claims service. Technology will keep raising the bar for how quickly and precisely we operate. Through it all, providing underwriting expertise and rigour at the point of sale remains central to our strategy. Three commitments guide our approach: Underwrite with precision. Maintain strong risk selection, limits management and pricing adequacy, grounded in data and informed by experience. Invest in tools that matter. Use AI to accelerate decisions and improve insight, backed by governance and focused on customer outcomes. Strengthen strategic partnerships. Be accessible, responsive and clear; collaborate to solve complex risks and move decisively where appetite is strong. We enter 2026 with confidence. The E&S market is poised for further growth, and AI will enable new possibilities for how we serve brokers and clients. At practitioners, we must embrace innovation and strengthen partnerships to help customers navigate risk today and anticipate what’s next. The future is full of opportunity, and E&S is ready to lead the way. Mike McKenna is head of North America at Axis E&S Most read articles US P&C underwriting peaks in 2025, outlook softens for 2026 Marsh beats Q4 earnings consensus, reports 4% underlying growth Howden US CEO says consolidation hollowed out broking, as platform converts hiring push into client wins Gallagher reports 5% organic growth in Q4 Axis sees ‘changing,' not soft, market as casualty, cyber discipline holds into 2026 Marsh: Property drives global commercial insurance rates down 4% in Q4
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