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Baldwin says ‘Goldilocks’ era for brokers is over - Business Insurance Skip to content Register for free Search Search Log In Risk Management Cyber Risks Pricing Trends Mergers & Acquisitions Technology Sponsored Content WSIA RISKWORLD Workers Comp & Safety Workers Comp Cost Control Pain Management Workplace Safety International EMEA Asia-Pacific Latin America People Events BI Intelligence Top 100 Agents & Brokers Best Places to Work 2025 Lists Directories Insurance Pricing BI Stock Index Magazine Current Issue Past Issues Subscribe Women to Watch ALL INsurance Resources Risk Perspectives Sponsored Content Webinars White Papers Risk Management Cyber Risks Pricing Trends Mergers & Acquisitions Technology Sponsored Content WSIA RISKWORLD Workers Comp & Safety Workers Comp Cost Control Pain Management Workplace Safety International EMEA Asia-Pacific Latin America People Events BI Intelligence Top 100 Agents & Brokers Best Places to Work 2025 Lists Directories Insurance Pricing BI Stock Index Magazine Current Issue Past Issues Subscribe Women to Watch ALL INsurance Resources Risk Perspectives Sponsored Content Webinars White Papers Risk Management Cyber Risks Pricing Trends Mergers & Acquisitions Technology Sponsored Content WSIA RISKWORLD Workers Comp & Safety Workers Comp Cost Control Pain Management Workplace Safety International EMEA Asia-Pacific Latin America People Events BI Intelligence Top 100 Agents & Brokers Best Places to Work 2025 Lists Directories Insurance Pricing BI Stock Index Magazine Current Issue Past Issues Subscribe Women to Watch ALL INsurance Resources Risk Perspectives Sponsored Content Webinars White Papers Risk Management Cyber Risks Pricing Trends Mergers & Acquisitions Technology Sponsored Content WSIA RISKWORLD Workers Comp & Safety Workers Comp Cost Control Pain Management Workplace Safety International EMEA Asia-Pacific Latin America People Events BI Intelligence Top 100 Agents & Brokers Best Places to Work 2025 Lists Directories Insurance Pricing BI Stock Index Magazine Current Issue Past Issues Subscribe Women to Watch ALL INsurance Resources Risk Perspectives Sponsored Content Webinars White Papers Baldwin says ‘Goldilocks’ era for brokers is over by Gavin Souter Trevor Baldwin Agents and Brokers , Financial Results , Technology Feb 26, 2026 The Baldwin Insurance Group sought to reassure investors Thursday during its fourth-quarter results presentation, addressing concerns about artificial intelligence, slowing growth and a sharp decline in its share price over the past year. The Tampa, Florida-based brokerage’s top executive said brokers are entering a tougher period, with moderating rates and fewer broad tailwinds. Baldwin reported fourth-quarter revenue of $347.3 million, up 5% from a year earlier, with organic revenue growth of 3%. The brokerage posted a net loss of $43.7 million, compared with a $35.3 million loss in the prior-year period. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization increased 10% to $69.6 million. For the full year, revenue rose 8% to $1.5 billion, with organic revenue growth of 7%. The company reported a net loss of $54.2 million, compared with a $41.1 million loss in 2024. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization increased 9% to $341.5 million. The board authorized a $250 million share repurchase program. Baldwin’s share price, which is less than half its level a year ago, closed at $18.49 on Thursday, up more than 9% for the day and rose more than 3% in after-hours trading. “At eight times EBITDA, there is not a better use of capital than buying our own shares,” said CEO Trevor Baldwin on a call with analysts. He also discussed the recent decline in brokerage-sector stocks, which was driven by concerns about competition from AI-driven insurance platforms. “The critical question being debated today is whether AI will be a true competitor to brokers or an enabler to them,” he said. “I believe the answer is both.” He said firms acting as “transactional middlemen” should be concerned, but argued Baldwin’s combination of embedded distribution and complex commercial advisory work positions it to benefit from the technology. Fourth-quarter organic growth was pressured by a 22% decline in profit-sharing revenue that was timing related, the transition of QBE’s agency business – which Baldwin bought in 2022 – Medicare market disruption and rate and exposure headwinds, Mr. Baldwin said. “I want to acknowledge to our shareholders what has been a year of uneven financial performance,” Mr. Baldwin said. Baldwin expects 2026 organic revenue growth in the mid-single digits or higher, with growth ramping through the year. Baldwin recently closed its acquisitions of insurance brokerages CAC Group and Capstone and Obie, an embedded real estate insurance platform. Together, the businesses generated about $350 million in 2025 pro forma revenue and are expected to produce roughly $400 million of revenue in 2026. Chief Financial Officer Brad Hale said the company expects 2026 revenue of $2.01 billion to $2.05 billion. Looking ahead, Mr. Baldwin said, “the Goldilocks era for insurance intermediaries is behind us,” referring to a period when rising rates and exposure growth lifted most brokers’ results. “The conditions that once lifted all boats have given way to a market that rewards only those with true capability, discipline and cohesion.” Related News Mosaic teams with Munich Re on AI coverage February 26, 2026 Florida court rejects broader comp drug dispensing rule February 26, 2026 Conn. bill would require study of delays in first responder claims February 26, 2026 Louisiana bill would limit evidence in comp medical treatment appeals February 26, 2026 N.J. bill would create temporary task force on pandemic-related PTSD February 26, 2026 Liberty launches lender collateral insurance program February 26, 2026 Gallagher buys German brokerage February 26, 2026 Munich Re posts 12% drop in fourth-quarter profit as weak dollar weighs February 26, 2026 Willis launches data center insurance group February 26, 2026 Facebook-f X-twitter Linkedin-in Business Insurance is a singular, authoritative news and information source for executives focused upon risk management, risk transfer and risk financing. 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